The number of migrants crossing the English Channel has reached record levels, now surpassing 20,000 for the year and could reach 70,000 by the end of 2025. This continued surge is occurring despite increased resources and legislation targeting organised crime networks facilitating the crossings. Critics argue that the UK still lacks an effective deterrent or cohesive strategy to address the crisis.
The increase in numbers is surprising, but without a deterrent, people will always try and make the crossing because the risk/reward ratio is so heavily tipped in their favour. The current government’s “Smash the Gangs” campaign has been heavily criticised as being more slogan than solution. Though some improvements have been made, such as bolstering the Small Boats Command and passing additional legislation, UK law enforcement faces a fundamental constraint, it cannot arrest traffickers in Europe. Instead, it can only pass intelligence to foreign counterparts, and it remains unclear to what extent those agencies act on it.
Even if more arrests are made, they won’t stop the activity. It’s a low-risk, high-reward operation, if one gang is dismantled, another quickly takes its place. The problem is further compounded by the fact that fewer than 5% of Channel-crossing migrants are ever removed from the UK. Most originate from countries to which deportation is either legally or diplomatically blocked. The result is that, once across the Channel, they are almost certain to remain in the UK indefinitely.
Furthermore, many of those arriving are placed into hotels without interview or background checks with obvious risks. The lack of adequate asylum accommodation has driven the widespread and increasing use of hotels, at a growing political and financial cost.
Government efforts to highlight the number of migrants stopped by French authorities have also been called into question. They aren’t stopped; they are just delayed. If they don’t make it today, they’ll try again tomorrow.
A previous deterrent, removal to third countries such as Rwanda was never fully tested. Though controversial, experts believe it could have had some impact. If removals were swift and consistent, it would likely have created a deterrent effect, however, such policies have since been scrapped. It would also allow for migrants from all nationalities to be removed from the UK, a current intractable problem.
The Labour Party has suggested tackling the issue by targeting the financial core of trafficking operations. However, experts argue that cracking down on organised crime alone is unlikely to stem the flow, as traffickers are easily replaced.
The Only Viable Solution, A Deal with France
The most promising proposal remains securing a return agreement with France. This would involve intercepting boats in the Channel and returning migrants directly to Calais. Every single boat is already intercepted mid-Channel by Border Force or Coastguard. The difference is that migrants know they’ll be taken to the UK but If they were taken back to France, behaviour would quickly change. No one would pay thousands to smugglers knowing they would end up back where they started.
Although concerns exist over the legality and safety of such a plan, the current method already involves mid-Channel interception. The real change would be in the outcome, a return to France rather than entry into the UK asylum system.
This strategy could benefit France as well, which is struggling with migrant encampments in the north of the country that create tension with local communities through petty crime and vagrancy. Ultimately, there is no simple solution but without meaningful deterrents, return agreements, or effective policies, migrant numbers are expected to rise further through summer and autumn, as favourable weather conditions persist.
