By David Wood, CEO of GSA Global Ltd, and former Director General of Immigration Enforcement at the Home Office.
The home secretary’s recent announcement on changes to the asylum system and imposing visa bans for countries that fail to accept migrant returns have been welcomed in some quarters. However, while the proposal signals intent, it is unlikely to act as a meaningful deterrent for those planning to cross the Channel.
The central issue is simple: once migrants reach the UK, the chances of removal remain extremely low and this reality is well known.
A Migrant Deterrent Introduced Too Late
For many migrants, decisions are driven by immediate safety, opportunity, or desperation. What may or may not happen several years after an asylum application is processed has little bearing on their mindset at the moment they embark on the journey.
The statistics reinforce this point.
Over the past seven years:
- Only 3% of small boat arrivals have been removed from the UK
- Nearly 90% of those removed came from just three countries
These figures illustrate a system where removal is the exception, not the rule. As long as the practical outcome of reaching UK shores is effectively long-term stay, with or without legal status, the journey will continue to appear worthwhile.
The Structural Barriers to Returning Migrants
Legal and humanitarian constraints will always limit returns to unsafe countries. But an even bigger challenge is the lack of cooperation from many governments.
A significant number of countries simply do not work with the UK on migrant returns. This non-cooperation creates a long-standing, systemic barrier to effective deportation.
Visa sanctions for high-volume countries could, in theory, increase compliance. But in practice, they are unlikely to be deployed.
Government departments with wider diplomatic, economic, development, or trade interests will resist creating friction with key partners. As a result, the tool remains more of a political signal than a practical deterrent.
What Would Constitute an Effective Deterrent?
For any deterrent strategy to have real impact, two elements are essential:
- Deportations in meaningful volume
A small number of removals especially years after arrival will never alter the calculus for those considering the journey.
Visible, consistent, and high-volume returns are required to shift perceptions. - Third-country processing and return arrangements
Because many countries cannot or will not accept returns, alternative solutions are critical. Third-country agreements would allow the UK to return small boat arrivals regardless of their nationality or the stance of their home country.
This approach is politically contentious but remains one of the few mechanisms with genuine potential to deter irregular crossings.
Visa Penalties Fail to Change Migrant Behaviour
Visa bans and penalties are well-intentioned steps, but they will not significantly influence migrant behaviour if only applied to low volume return countries. As long as the overwhelming likelihood upon arrival is the ability to remain in the UK, the Channel will remain a viable route.
A credible deterrent demands large-scale removals and workable third-country solutions. Without these, policy announcements risk being symbolic rather than impactful.
